"Weather Hype"

Let's take a moment to talk about online weather sources. There are so many websites and social media channels and weather apps to choose from! How do I know that I'm getting the most accurate information possible?

When you need dependable weather information, especially during times of severe weather, it's best to use the National Weather Service (NWS) or media outlets that directly source their information from the NWS. Unlike commercial entities, the NWS's goal is not to generate clicks or sell advertising; it is public service and safety.

Nearly all weather data in the U.S. originates from the taxpayer-funded infrastructure operated by the National Weather Service and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This includes everything from Doppler radar and weather satellites to weather balloons and automated surface observing systems. This data is then made publicly available by the NWS. Private weather companies and their apps ingest this raw NWS data and run it through their own proprietary computer models and display algorithms. While this is not inherently bad, it means you are receiving a forecast that has been processed and interpreted by a third party, which can sometimes differ from the official forecast created by NWS meteorologists. Some media outlets processing this information never pass it through the eyes of a trained meteorologist!

The business model of many commercial weather apps and websites relies on user engagement. The more you visit their app or site, or like and comment on their content, the more revenue they generate. This can create an incentive to present the weather in the most dramatic way possible to capture attention. A forecast might highlight the most extreme, worst-case scenario from a single computer model—even if it's days away and has a low probability of occurring—because it generates more clicks than a more measured, nuanced forecast. This practice leads to what the NWS itself calls "weather hype," which can cause unnecessary anxiety and confusion.

This "weather hype" is especially prevalent on social media. Unofficial social media pages, often run by individuals without meteorological credentials, may share alarming graphics with sensationalized headlines. According to the NWS, you should be wary of posts that use all-caps, startling phrases, or definitive, scary-sounding language for a storm that is more than a week away. Reputable sources, like your local NWS office, focus on clear, calm communication. They explain their level of confidence in a forecast and detail potential impacts without resorting to fear-mongering.

In addition, many apps that nowcast storms for you (such as ones that display "rain will begin soon" and when) rely almost entirely on extrapolating the movement of precipitation already detected by Doppler radar. Powerful storm cells sometimes develop very quickly and before radar is able to fully identify them. It is always best to read the radar and official NWS forecasts so you have the best information possible to make informed decisions.

While even the best weather forecasts sometimes don't pan out, weather hype serves to overall erode trust in weather forecasting in general, increases fear and anxiety, and can also desensitize people by them becoming less concerned when a real severe weather event is imminent.

All of the weather warnings and forecasts you see on Rice County Skywarn's website and social media pages are all sourced directly from the Chanhassen office of the National Weather Service. But don't take our word for it! Visit the Chanhassen office of the National Weather Service's website at https://www.weather.gov/mpx or their Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/NWSTwinCities. By relying on the NWS, we know we're getting unfiltered information from the experts whose only mission is to keep us safe, ensuring you are prepared, not scared.